War, Bats, and Sandwiches

Bread Rules Everything Around Me

Ever wonder what War, Bats, and Sandwiches possibly have in common?

It could be something as small as people’s dietary choices (or lab leaks);

Or something as large as a continental conflict.

Interestingly, all of these factors impact your favourite sandwiches, primarily through their effect on wheat supply.

Take the Russia-Ukraine conflict, for example, which sent global wheat prices soaring by 32% in 2022, exposing a critical vulnerability in our already fragile global food system that was hit hard during the pandemic due to supply chain issues. With these two nations controlling nearly a quarter of global wheat exports, the conflict created a ripple effect that particularly affected African nations. Africa spends over $20 billion annually importing wheat, with North Africa accounting for 59% of Africa's wheat import bill, followed by countries in Western (19%) and Eastern Africa (14%). Wheat imports comprise up to 90% of Africa’s $4 billion trade with Russia and nearly half of the continent’s $4.5 billion trade with Ukraine.

Note: This article serves as a thought exercise exploring the potential of West African indigenous grains in the global bread market. While based on market data and trends, specific implementation would require additional expertise in food production, distribution, and regulatory compliance.

Why Is This The Case?

Unless they’re on keto, you will find Africans eating bread everyday. Yet, we depend on imports to meet our needs. With the most uncultivated arable land in the world, how is this possible?

Well, historically, West African nutrition centered on indigenous grains and tubers such as millet, sorghum, maize, cassava, and fonio. Wheat-based bread, although heavily featured in our regimen today, is a colonial relic. Furthermore, the region's climatic conditions make it difficult to grow wheat; thus, there is a greater focus on cash crops like cocoa and cotton, which we primarily export as raw materials. Ironic, isn’t it? We adopted something that is difficult to foster in our environment… (see: law system, education system, political system etc.)

That being said, we haven’t given up on our traditional grains: millet, sorghum, maize, and cassava account for 70–80% of staple grain consumption, particularly in rural areas.

So What’s The Problem?

People plant maize, harvest nothing, and still plant maize the next season.

The issue is, we love wheat too much: it’s cheap, tasty, and the biggest form of foreign food aid we’ve received. The cultural significance of foreign crops, such as wheat and maize, is deeply entrenched across African societies, with many farmers reluctant to switch to alternatives. As Florence Wambugu, CEO of Africa Harvest, observes, “People plant maize, harvest nothing, and still plant maize the next season.” This is emblematic of a bigger issue — that we abandon our culture, languages, and religions to cheaply imitate others and thus view our own staples as inferior. Or it could simply be a symptom of globalization. But that is a whole other conversation.

Problem = Opportunity

Let's face it: everyone consumes wheat. It is the second most widely produced grain and is used to produce common staples, including bread, pasta, and pastries. The global wheat market size was valued at USD 195.99 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.28% from 2024 to 2030. This growth is being driven by increasing demand for healthier options, particularly among aging and increasingly more health conscious populations in Western countries seeking gluten-free, nutrient-dense alternatives.

Meanwhile, Africa continues to import wheat at staggering rates. Africa's wheat import bill has been increasing over the past two decades at a rate of 9% per year due to population growth, urbanization, and less consumption of indigenous grains. Much of this imported food could be produced locally, according to the World Bank. This dependency has led to economic vulnerability and food insecurity.

Some Numbers

The numbers tell a compelling story:

• West Africa spends over $3 billion annually importing wheat

• Indigenous cereals in West Africa are generally cheaper than imported wheat due to their lower total landed cost, which factors in shipping, tariffs, and handling, as well as their reduced production costs associated with requiring fewer resources and being better suited to local climates.

• Lastly, indigenous grains contain more protein, more fiber, less gluten, and are simply more nutritious than traditional wheat.

  • Fonio: This ancient grain contains twice the protein, iron, and fiber of wheat. It's gluten-free, low-glycemic, and rich in amino acids.

  • Millet: Drought-resistant and nutritionally superior to wheat, millet contains higher levels of essential minerals and vitamins. The global millet market is projected to reach $12 billion by 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%.

  • Sorghum: Already a $22 billion global market, sorghum is a valuable nutritional component in livestock feed and a source for biofuel production. Its resilience in drought-prone areas, combined with its gluten-free and nutritious qualities, caters to both environmental sustainability and health-conscious consumer preferences.

    • Ironically, an American company (Cargill Inc.) controls 20% of the global Sorghum market.

  • Cassava: West Africa produces 35% of the world's cassava. When processed into flour, it creates a versatile, gluten-free alternative that's already used in composite breads throughout the region.

    • Nigeria alone produces 20%!

WB—wheat bread, BWB 1—baobab/wheat bread 10%, BWB 2—baobab/wheat bread 20%, and BWB 3—baobab/wheat bread 30%. https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/12/14/2697

The Market Opportunity

1. Rising Health Consciousness: The global gluten-free products market is projected to reach $ 25.36 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8%. While this represents a fraction of the enormous global bread market, currently valued at nearly $500 billion, its high growth rate highlights consumer preferences towards healthier alternatives. The superior nutritional profile of these grains aligns perfectly with premium pricing strategies in health-focused markets. West African grains fit perfectly into this trend. For example, consider quinoa, the popular South American grain that has become a mainstream alternative to rice and oats in the past decade.

2. Aging Western Populations: By 2030, 20% of Americans will be over 65, a demographic increasingly seeking nutrient-dense, digestible foods. Indigenous grains offer higher mineral content and easier digestibility than conventional wheat.

   1. This is already the case amongst various European nations and Japan, where there are more seniors than people under 18.

3. Supply Chain Resilience: After COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict exposed vulnerabilities in global food systems, food manufacturers are actively seeking diversified supply chains. West African grains offer this diversification.

4. Climate Adaptation: As climate change threatens traditional wheat-growing regions, drought-resistant West African grains become increasingly attractive alternatives.

5. Differentiation: In saturated Western bread markets, West African grain products offer genuine novelty and authentic stories that resonate with conscious consumers.

Current Developments

Yolélé Foods: Founded by chef Pierre Thiam, this company has successfully introduced fonio to the U.S. market, securing distribution in Whole Foods.

There are also various government policies, such as the West African Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP), that champion and promote the production of indigenous grains as an alternative to wheat based products to reduce reliance on imports.

Yolele Website

The Challenges

This opportunity isn't without significant challenges:

1. Scale and Consistency: Current production of indigenous grains is fragmented among smallholder farmers, making consistent quality and volume difficult to achieve.

2. Processing Infrastructure: Limited milling and processing facilities designed for these grains create bottlenecks in the supply chain.

3. Consumer Education: Western consumers need education on unfamiliar grains.

4. Regulatory Hurdles: Food safety certifications and import regulations can be complex.

5. Taste Adaptation: Traditional wheat bread has specific taste and texture profiles that consumers expect; alternatives must meet these expectations or create new ones.

What’s more embarrassing is that a country like Ukraine exports about 74 million tonnes of grain despite current conflicts, and you wonder why Ghana and Africa have fallen asleep.

Ken Ofori-Atta, Ghana’s Finance Minister

The Implementation: A Phased Approach

Note: Now, translating this potential into reality requires deep expertise in food production, logistics, and market entry – areas beyond this thought exercise (which, full disclosure, leaned on AI brainstorming for structure). I know nothing about implementing such a project. This is just a fun thought exercise exploring what could be. However, a plausible pathway might involve phases like these:

Phase 1: Composite Flours (Years 1-2)

• Develop and market bread products using a blend – say, 20-30% indigenous grain flour mixed with wheat.

• Focus initially on West African urban markets. This helps reduce import needs while offering a taste profile that's still familiar to consumers accustomed to wheat bread.

• The goal here is substitution and building local acceptance, targeting a significant West African urban market potentially worth over a billion dollars annually.

Phase 2: Premium Health Products (Years 2-4)

• Launch products made with 100% indigenous grain flour into Western health food markets (think Whole Foods, specialty grocers).

• Position these as premium, nutritional powerhouses with authentic origin stories – playing directly into the health, wellness, and conscious consumer trends.

• This involves tapping into premium health-focused Western markets where the demand for such alternatives represents several billion dollars.

Phase 3: Mainstream Integration (Years 4-7)

• The long game: Partner with major food manufacturers (think global brands) to incorporate these indigenous grains into their mainstream product lines (breads, cereals, snacks).

• This requires scaling up production significantly, likely through contract farming agreements and major investments in processing infrastructure across West Africa.

• Success here means aiming for broader integration into the global food market, an opportunity potentially exceeding $15 billion.

Beyond Business

1. Economic Development: A thriving indigenous grain sector could create farming, processing, and distribution jobs across West Africa. Crucially, by transforming local grains into flour and finished bread products, this allows for African economies to add value domestically rather than simply exporting raw agricultural commodities.

2. Food Security: Reducing dependency on imported wheat would buffer West African nations against global price shocks and supply disruptions.

3. Cultural Preservation: Commercializing traditional grains helps preserve agricultural heritage and indigenous knowledge.

4. Environmental Benefits: These crops typically require fewer inputs and are better adapted to local growing conditions, reducing environmental impact.

Conclusion

It's important to note that this thought exercise doesn't cover all aspects of implementation. Logistics, governance structures, and detailed operational plans would require deeper food production and distribution systems expertise.

However, the core value proposition is clear: West African indigenous grains offer a path to greater food sovereignty, economic development, and a healthier global food system. For entrepreneurs, investors, and policymakers willing to take on the challenge, the opportunity to transform how the world thinks about bread – and about African agriculture – is ripe for the baking.

Because in the end, B.R.E.A.D. truly does rule everything around me.

Let me know what you think about this idea in the comments!